Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.768545 0.899743 1.046455 1.222683 1.428669 1.661899 1.946154
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.559732 0.733074 0.949447 1.239461 1.618328 2.096995 2.748700
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.473107 0.671175 0.938551 1.326069 1.874113 2.622817 3.726086
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.403139 0.610219 0.908092 1.368102 2.061948 3.071947 4.659092
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.343836 0.550384 0.864214 1.376159 2.192481 3.447667 5.532772
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.294365 0.495260 0.815759 1.364752 2.284624 3.769806 6.362342
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.256125 0.450941 0.775870 1.357807 2.377962 4.100075 7.245320
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.228433 0.419444 0.751401 1.370952 2.503459 4.495701 8.290037
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.196327 0.374903 0.697386 1.322879 2.511789 4.685315 8.990187
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.188080 0.372724 0.718487 1.414017 2.785842 5.386804 10.732824
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.164641 0.337901 0.673652 1.372692 2.800434 5.602177 11.566240
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.143921 0.305392 0.628673 1.324187 2.792786 5.770748 12.325257
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.126045 0.276629 0.588221 1.281187 2.794478 5.966502 13.188147
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.116099 0.263368 0.578119 1.301270 2.933505 6.468017 14.786514
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113041 0.264748 0.599266 1.392367 3.240486 7.370212 17.406235
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.106508 0.257224 0.599678 1.436516 3.447293 8.078360 19.685458
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.098165 0.244191 0.585722 1.444978 3.571573 8.614160 21.634423
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.089482 0.229027 0.564622 1.432999 3.644312 9.037139 23.367238
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.082035 0.215853 0.546496 1.425705 3.727413 9.495819 25.257184
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.076493 0.206758 0.537201 1.439510 3.866161 10.111211 27.644389
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.068329 0.189573 0.505072 1.389027 3.829206 10.272726 28.845699
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.067698 0.192703 0.526248 1.484734 4.199528 11.552021 33.301553
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.061067 0.178196 0.498393 1.441337 4.179321 11.778458 34.828504